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November 03, 2008
Cards on the Table Time
Okay, I'm no Michael Barone, but this is what I think will happen tomorrow night, based on recent movement toward McCain in some of the swing states. If you'd asked me what the map might have looked like a week ago, I would have said this:
What's changed is the independent vote, which I believe will break in McCain's favor tomorrow. If these folks haven't been sold on hopenchange yet, they're not likely to cast a ballot for Obama. Thanks to Obama's idiotic comments on coal, and the coal industry's quick reaction, I think he's lost Pennsylvania and Ohio. Plus, I think his characterization of those voters as bitter, gun and religion clinging nuts still stings. I may be wrong on Virginia, but Obama's support seems to be pretty steady there.
What I do not see is an Obama landslide. Gallup may be saying Obama 55, McCain 44, but when you take into account that they oversampled Democrats by 12 points, their poll looks a little suspect.
There's a slight chance that Maine's second congressional district could go McCain - if he can win or reach parity in Bangor, build up a large lead in Oxford and Piscataquis counties and make it a 50/50 race in Somerset, Waldo, Washington, Aroostook and Hancock he's got a shot.
I think we'll know pretty early who wins this election, since most of the battleground states are on the east coast. If McCain wins all or three out of four of VA, PA, OH and FL, he's got the election. If he splits them with Obama, it's up to the western states. If Obama takes most of them, it's game over, Maverick.
Considering the volatility of this election season, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see this result:
In this case, my little corner of the world would become super important.
Go out and vote tomorrow. But before you do, send this to any undecided voter you may know.
Posted by slublog at November 3, 2008 07:00 PM
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Comments
How likely is it that the Omaha or Lincoln district of Nebraska would go to Obama?
Posted by: MainiacJoe at November 3, 2008 10:58 PM
Oh my God, that last one actually made me shudder. How long does it take to dig a bomb shelter?
Posted by: Jim Treacher at November 4, 2008 06:40 AM
How likely is it that the Omaha or Lincoln district of Nebraska would go to Obama?
Not very. It might have been a few weeks ago, but the Obama campaign gave up on it as a strategy. Probably a good move on their part, since Democrats haven't cracked 40% there in the last two presidential cycles. In 2004, not a single county was blue in that state. (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm)
Posted by: Slublog at November 4, 2008 07:33 AM
Thanks for the reply. One more question: I was surprised you called New Mexico for McCain in both maps. What made you decide that?
Posted by: MainiacJoe at November 4, 2008 09:24 AM
A complete guess. Mostly because it's a southwestern state and McCain is a southwestern guy.
Posted by: Slublog at November 4, 2008 09:29 AM
Oh please let Map #1 be what we see.
Posted by: Kris, in New England at November 4, 2008 11:06 AM
I sure hope your first map is correct. Although it would look even better with a red Colorado and a red Maine. I'm praying that there are more intelligent people in this country than the mainstream media would lead us to believe. Here's to a McCain - Palin surprise victory!
Posted by: Cheryl at November 4, 2008 11:47 AM
Slublog, whatcha drinkin' tonight?
I've cracked a bottle of 2000 Barolo - the King of Wines and the Wine of Kings, which is appropriate since in all likelihood I'm about to be ruled by one.
Posted by: Dudley Smith at November 4, 2008 06:03 PM