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February 05, 2008
Unintended Consequences?
John McCain has spent the last week confident that he'll clinch the nomination this evening. He's spent the last few weeks seemingly cultivating a relationship with Mike Huckabee, which paid off today when McCain's delegates gave Huckabee a win in the West Virginia primary.
That relationship may sour after today. McCain needs a huge delegate count tonight to knock out his rivals. Unfortunately for him, Huckabee may sweep the south and deny him that decisive victory. Wouldn't it be great if Huckabee denied McCain enough delegates tonight to keep it a three-way race?
Of course, that could also mean Huckabee would end up on the ticket if McCain gets the nomination. Huckabee is the one guy I will not cast a vote to support, so I hope McCain isn't that stupid.
Overall, the news for McCain looks good, but...
Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.If Romney comes within five in McCain's home state? Ouch.
Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.
WHOA - Exits from Arizona: McCain, 36, Romney, 36.
Update - Other than the promising AZ exits, Romney is severely under-performing tonight. If current trends hold, he's out of the race by the end of the week.
And Huckabee is doing unexpectedly well in the south. At this rate, a McCain/Huckabee ticket isn't out of the question. Viva identity politics in the south! If this post by Geraghty is right about why Romney didn't do well, then the GOP deserves to lose in November. I may not agree with Mormon doctrine, but rejecting a candidate based on the particulars of their religious beliefs is discouraging.
Yup...if Huckabee's on the ticket, OBAMAMANIA! What a disappointing candidate Huckabee turned out to be. If cheap smears and class warfare are what it takes for a "Christian Leader" to assume power, then count me out. Huckabee really is a repulsive candidate, in the strictest sense of the word - he revels in divisiveness. And why wouldn't he? It's worked for him this long.
The big winner tonight?
Mrs. Slublog.
Any money I thought about giving the GOP nominee? It will be enough for a nice dinner with my wife. Thanks, southern voters!
Posted by slublog at February 5, 2008 06:46 PM
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Comments
This has been a strikingly disappointing primary season. What's sad is that McCain received 150 delegates from NY and NJ - two states that are meaningless to the GOP in the Presidential election. I don't understand the weighting the GOP uses in assigning delegates - it ought to be based on past turnout. Instead they have this:
RULE NO. 13 Membership in Convention
Subject to the provisions of Rule No. 16, the membership of the next national convention shall consist of:
(a) Delegates.
(1) Ten (10) delegates at large from each of the fifty (50) states.
(3) Three (3) district delegates for each Representative in the United States House of Representatives from each state. So NY, with 29 Representatives, automatically gets 97 delegates (plus a few more for various other considerations). Does that make any sense?
Posted by: geoff at February 6, 2008 12:41 AM
Hmmm. Screwed up the blockquote.
Posted by: geoff at February 6, 2008 12:42 AM
Not a good week for Mass teams.
Posted by: Thus Spake Ortner at February 6, 2008 09:21 AM