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November 12, 2007
NRLC Endorsement: Boost or Bust?
Although it's supposedly embargoed until tomorrow, media outlets are reporting that Fred Thompson has won the endorsement of the National Right to Life Committee.
INDIANOLA, Iowa (AP) — Fred Thompson, the candidate billing himself as the most consistent conservative in the crowded Republican field, has won the presidential endorsement of the National Right to Life Committee, GOP officials said Monday.If this endorsement means money and volunteers for Thompson, then it will provide a much-needed boost to his flailing campaign. Although Thompson is still strong in national polls, his numbers have been falling in key primary states. I think much of the reason for the fall is that Thompson has been unable to control his campaign's narrative.The nod by the prominent anti-abortion group could boost the former Tennessee senator's lackluster campaign. He has seen his poll numbers drop in recent weeks in Iowa and elsewhere as he has failed to become the consensus candidate of restive social conservatives still searching for someone to embrace.
The success or failure of a presidential campaign is largely due to the candidate's ability to control the narrative. Losing presidential campaigns always have a harmful narrative - Michael Dukakis was too liberal, George H.W. Bush was 'out of touch,' Al Gore was robotic, John Kerry was a flip-flopper. Losing candidates allow others to define them.
Fred Thompson's narrative did not start well - he was accused of being lazy and lacking the necessary 'fire in the belly.' Thompson undoubtedly knew this, and yet made a number of errors in which he reinforced this narrative instead of working to dispel it. He has continually allowed others to define him, and his dropping poll numbers are the result.
I had hopes for Thompson when he started. He seemed like a candidate who could communicate conservative ideals without alienating independents. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Thompson has been compared to Ronald Reagan, but those comparisons are more hopeful than realistic. Reagan had the ability to convince people they were conservative - he laid out his philosophy of government and encouraged people to join him. In the speeches I've seen so far, Thompson does hot have that ability.
His campaign is almost insulting in its lack of subtlety. Thompson recites conservative talking points and seems to believe that we will salivate like Pavlov's dogs because we're looking for an alternative to Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney. He doesn't seek to convince, but reassure - Thompson's campaign is pointed directly at the choir. The lack of energy he exhibits further dilutes his message and boosts the 'Fred is lazy' narrative.
It remains to be seen whether this endorsement will change the existing Thompson narrative. Only the candidate can affect that, and from what we've seen thus far, Thompson is not willing or able to set the course for his campaign. This lack of campaign leadership is doubtless causing voters to reconsider him as a viable candidate. After all, if you don't have the ability to lead a campaign, why should we give you the ability to lead a country?
Thompson is losing. If he wants to get back into the game, he has to lead, show he wants this nomination and do more than simply say 'I'm a conservative' to win.
Update - Looks like the Fred bubble is losing air, fast. It really is unfortunate, given how promising a candidate he seemed at the beginning. My guess is that we're going to see Mitt Romney gain in strength as a consensus candidate of sorts - he's more conservative than Giuliani but more electable than Mike Huckabee. (H/t: Hot Air)
Posted by slublog at November 12, 2007 10:52 PM
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