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August 22, 2005
The Coming Split on the Right?
Captain's Quarters has a good post today on the split in the Democratic party between those on the far left of the ideological spectrum and the centrists of the party. The fault lines are seen most clearly, he says, in the Roberts nomination and in the anti-war movement.
The essential Catch-22 of the Democrats consists of the central question set up by the successes of the Clintons in expanding the Democrats' voter base in the 1990s combined with the debacle of national security issues during their tenure, which has become even more apparent in the past few weeks. No one trusts national security to the cut-and-run Democrats, which limit the party's options in Iraq. Centrists cannot understand the rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth objections to Roberts and find themselves appalled and exasperated at the smear tactics of NARAL and others in their efforts to defeat him. Yet the few from the party with common sense to address these issues get swamped out by the radical wing, assisted by a media sympathetic to their cause, making any middle ground an impossibility.Captain Ed says the Democrats will likely lose elections in 2006 and 2008 due to this inability of both wings to communicate or form a coherent message.
This post got me thinking about the Republican party. At present, unity on the war is creating a unsteady truce between the normally battling wings of the party. The steady litany of bad news coming out of that country, though, has raised doubts in some about how the war is being waged and exposed the Republican party's own fault lines for the media and the Democrats to see.
There are three issues that threaten to tear the Republican party into warring factions - immigration, gay and lesbian issues and government spending.
The first, immigration, is the issue where I think the sharpest disagreements arise. Conservative bloggers such as La Shawn Barber and Polipundit have been highly critical of the president's immigration plan. Polipundit even threatened to pull his support from the president's re-election campaign. If this movement has a leader, it's Congressman Tom Tancredo, who I've blogged about here.
Tancredo and his followers want to do two things - end illegal immigration; and deport all illegal immigrants. Sounds good, until you begin to see who they're defining as illegals. Tancredo does not believe the children of illegals born in this country are citizens. How far back does Tancredo think this should be taken? My great-grandparents came to this country illegally. Again, am I a citizen?
I don't have an issue with those who want to take a firmer stance on immigration. But it should be done in a way that respects our country's history of mass immigration. In the past few centuries, waves of immigrants came from different countries at different times. The Germans, the Irish, the Italians. Now it's the Hispanics, and it's driving some people into what feels like xenophobia. La Shawn Barber singled out Hispanic immigrants in a post on immigration:
Over the next few months my posts will probably seem very angry to you. In fact, you may become angry yourselves over my increasingly anti-Iraq war, anti-Mexican and Central American illegal immigrants, and anti-Bush stances...Ad campains to discourage Mexicans from jumping the border are a “colossal waste of money.” I agree. We don’t need bloody ads; we need enforcement!So I guess Canadian, African, European and Asian illegal immigration are perfectly acceptable. La Shawn's passion on the subject is admirable, but I think her, and the overall immigration movement's, rhetoric on this needs to change if they want to do more than preach to the choir.
Democrats already see where this debate is heading, and are taking steps to exploit the splits in the Republican party. The debate is a needed one, but some on the right are beginning to sound like modern-day Know Nothings. Given the political power that Hispanics will hold over the next few decades, it seems better to work with them to develop sound immigration policies instead of using them as a boogeyman in one's arguments.
I tend to read conservative blogs, listen to conservative radio programs when I can and discuss politics with conservatives. On immigration, I'm angered by the attitude toward Hispanics I hear communicated - the growing perception of Latin Americans among conservatives are a lazy bunch of do-nothing immigrants that wants to come here to take welfare checks or steal our jobs. (Those who make such arguments rarely see the illogic in them). I've also heard complaints that Hispanics want to form racial ghettoes and don't assimilate, or that they have 'litters' of kids or that they aren't interested in becoming Americans, and even if they did, their refusal to speak English would make their citizenship questionable. Maybe being part Hispanic has made me more sensitive to such arguments, but that doesn't change the fact that such rhetoric is not debate, it's demonization. And it doesn't help.
Not all conservatives believe these things, but I've seen enough of the arguments to make me angry, and I'm a Republican. Imagine what seeing and hearing such words does to someone who hasn't yet made up their mind politically. There are a lot of American citizens who are of Hispanic descent being turned off by the rhetoric coming from the extremists. By all means, let's have this debate. But let's be civil and respectful.
The other side of this debate can be found here, in the words of Rupert Murdoch. I'm (heaven help me) in the mushy middle on this issue. I think we should preserve immigration while securing our borders and allowing those already in the country to undergo a process that will help them become citizens.
The other two issues are minor compared to the potential for immigration to split the party.
The second issue that could threaten to split the Republicans are gay and lesbian issues. Not the issue of gay marriage, which I believe will have a hard time passing in either party, but the Federal Marriage Amendment and the amount of political capital that social conservatives believe Republicans should spend trying to pass it.
Groups such as the Family Research Council and the Christian Civic League of Maine believe the Republicans should do all in their power to pass what I believe is an anti-federalist amendment that will ultimately achieve about as much as did prohibition.
Again, this issue deserves debate, but some extremists on this issue aren't interested. Dobson and others have repeatedly made threats to stay home on election day if their demands are not met on gay and lesbian issues. Given the depth of their emotion on this, I wouldn't be surprised to watch them splinter off and follow a Gary Bauer-like social conservative candidate in 2008.
Finally, there's spending. This is where I'm most annoyed with the Bush administration's policies. I think the Republicans are spending far too much of my money. I want them to stop. I will tend to support a candidate who wants to cut spending instead of one who wants to keep the status quo. I put this issue last because I do not believe it will be a factor in the next few election cycles. The more emotionally-charged issues above will likely play a stronger role there.
Both political parties are at a crossroads right now between the extremists and the pragmatists. I think the better arguments are with the pragmatists, so they will likely come out ahead in the end. In the meantime, though, there will be a lot of sound and fury from those who think their party should be defined by the one or two issues they care most deeply about.
Posted by slublog at August 22, 2005 09:12 AM
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Comments
That was a good post by Captain Ed. (Really!) A lot of my fellow lefties don't seem to understand the trouble the Dems are in - it's not because they're 'too far left' but rather because they're not any one thing ...
That said, I think the split might be overstated a bit. I have to wonder how many 'rank and file' Democrats are represented by the likes of the vile DLC.
Regarding the GOP, don't forget about abortion. If Roe is overturned, you could see a battle for control of the party. Especially if Guiliani (currently topping polls of Republicans for pres. 2008) makes a strong run.
Posted by: Dadahead at August 22, 2005 12:35 PM
I think abortion is a big issue, but the ardor has cooled just a bit. A lot of conservatives are burned out on pro-life issues after Schiavo.
Posted by: Slublog at August 22, 2005 01:37 PM
I'm conservative on abortion, but I've learned a lesson from our attempts to end slavery in America: doing it by force didn't work. I'm therefore would be more comfortable if those pro-choicers who are trying to make aboriton legal but rare succeeded, than if the pro-lifers who want to outlaw abortion succeeded. I have the feeling that the latter wold be an illusory "victory." Better IMO would be to work to change public opinion to where it uniformly denounces elective abortion, even if it takes longer.
Posted by: MainiacJoe at August 22, 2005 03:47 PM
Illegal immigration is by far the #1 issue for this righty.
Posted by: Old Coot at August 23, 2005 10:21 AM
I'm perplexed why MainiacJoe says ending slavery by force didn't work. Wasn't that one of the main reasons and results of the Civil War? Since slavery ended upon the North's victory over the South, I think that force worked in that case, but I'm not a strong student of history...however that does NOT mean I think we need to use force to end abortion. That is a social issue; the way to end it is to make it a socially unacceptable option.
As to the illegal immigration: it is right and appropriate that we are especially cautious where illegal Mexican immigration is concerned. Unlike the countries who send us African, European and Asian illegals, they don't share a border with us, and have not publicly, expressly stated a desire to have an EU like construct here in North America. I hope we can agree on the fact that that would have an adverse effect on our sovereignty? Canada shares a border with us, but has not expressed any desire to merge, so they don't worry me.
Vincente Fox said: Eventually, our long-range objective is to establish with the United States, but also with Canada, our other regional partner, an ensemble of connections and institutions similar to those created by the European Union, with the goal of attending to future themes as important as the future prosperity of North America, and the freedom of movement of capital, goods, services and persons... and Jorge Castandeda said "We would like to continentalize as much as possible... We have been pushing for this. And we have been encountering a receptive ear both in Canada and the United States at a certain level of intensity... We would like to move more quickly. We would like to move more deeply." Bush has also made public statements agreeing with these sentiments, and given the EUs track record, I think we have cause to be concerned.
Mexico is a country rich in resources but corruption is just sucking the life out of it. The ability to export their poor just facilitates that corruption. We've had a couple of good discussions on this at Dummocrats, there are some good links here and here if you're interested.
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