« Base Closings Blog | Main | Michael Yon - MSM Dropping the Ball »

August 24, 2005

Hear that Sound?

It's a sigh of relief coming from Augusta and Washington, D.C. Governor John Baldacci and Senator Olympia Snowe, both up for re-election next year, are breathing a bit easier right now. The Brunswick Naval Air Station decision will sting, but it won't have the same political effect that a closing of the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard would have had.

Baldacci will get an immediate political boost out of this decision. Look for his approval rating to rise above the 50 percent mark. He's been out front on this fight, and he deserves the political rewards of winning it. But will this help him win re-election? It's far too soon to say for sure, but losing both bases would have helped cement a loss.

In the end, this may be bad for Baldacci if the Republicans use it as an opportunity to point out just how dependent the state of Maine has become on federal largesse. They can say that Baldacci spent more time and energy trying to save a base than he's spent on economic development during his time in office and that the state needs to diversify its job base. This was a close call and many will wonder why Maine's economic strength should rely so heavily on the fate of a few bases and the BRAC decision.

Snowe will also be helped by this decision. She has campaigned for years on her ability to keep bases open with her influence, and it worked again, so she will likely keep enough independents and Democrats in her camp to win re-election. Snowe still has a major problem with the Republican base, though, many of whom are upset with her near-constant criticism of the current administration, her opposition to tax cuts and her pretending at deficit hawkishness while bragging about the money she pulls into Maine. If she's smart, she'll time between now and the election mending fences with Republicans.

In the end, though, the decision came down to one thing - Portsmouth had the better argument for survival. It is a shipyard that does good work, often under budget. There was much less rationale for keeping Brunswick. I know our state's political leaders tried to make a case based on homeland security, but that argument was weak at best, near-disingenuous at worst.

Brunswick's squadrons are mainly P-3 Orions, which were submarine-hunter/killer aircraft. As far as I know, Al Qaeda has not yet developed a navy. Since Russia barely has a navy anymore, the greatest threat from submarines comes from China, and the bases to keep an eye on them should be located on the west coast.

In some ways, the fact that this fight is almost over (the fate of Limestone has yet to be decided) is a negative for the governor. With over a year to go until the election, voters can now take their minds off the major fight to save bases and focus on how things are going in Maine's economy and government. When that happens, expect Baldacci's approval numbers to slip back down, becuase in terms of job creation, government spending and taxation, there's a lot of work to do.

Posted by slublog at August 24, 2005 12:05 PM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.slublog.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/1730

Comments

Posted by: Fashion Knock Off Handbags at October 26, 2010 08:32 PM

Posted by: Matthew C. Kriner at December 7, 2010 12:54 AM

Posted by: Merchant Services at December 22, 2010 02:06 AM

Posted by: Link Building at December 22, 2010 11:45 PM

Posted by: Margart Dering at January 22, 2011 08:06 AM