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May 13, 2005

Snowe's Chances, Part II

Senator Olympia Snowe's chances to win re-election just took a massive hit.

Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery would close and Brunswick Naval Air Station's would lose about half its total active-duty military personnel under a proposal unveiled Friday by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Maine is expected to lose nearly 7,000 military and civilian jobs as a result of the Pentagon's recommendations, making the state among the hardest hit in the nation.

Much of Snowe's non-Republican support in the past has been due to her perceived ability to keep the shipyard and other bases open with her Washington experience and clout. The base closings were out of Snowe's control, but she will be blamed, since she has campaigned on the issue before.

Snowe's Republican support is eroding because she will not vote with the Constitution on judges. With this news on base closings, her support from Democrats and independents will fall sharply. For the first time in a few election cycles, Senator Snowe is very vulnerable to defeat.

UPDATE - In the comments, I've listed some potential Republican candidates for Senate. I think that if this goes badly for Maine, and Snowe is unable to protect the shipyard, she will likely retire rather than face the voters again.

UPDATE II - Welcome Hugh Hewitt readers. I note that Hugh has posted Snowe's reaction on his blog:

"Today’s decision by the Department of Defense is nothing short of stunning, devastating, and above all, outrageous. It is a travesty and a strategic blunder of epic proportions on the part of the Defense Department. It is entirely beyond me as to the basis on which they made their recommendations, but it certainly wasn’t logic or reason. Clearly, in arriving at these inexplicable decisions, the Defense Department and the Navy must have been operating in a fog so thick they couldn’t even see the facts in front of them."
This reaction is bad. Almost shrill. The Senator is basically accusing the administration of having political motives for closing the base. Representative Mike Michaud does just that in this story.
Rep. Mike Michaud, D-Maine, contrasted Maine's losses with gains in Texas, where Bush was governor, and Florida, where the president's brother is governor.

"You've got to kind of wonder," he said. "I cannot justify the decisions that they made.

With all due respect, guys, this may impress the guys at the shipyard, but you've got to get it out of your system quick and start concentrating on the BRAC committee. On Channel 2 news right now, they are reporting on a rally at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. Great way to convince the government that your jobs are necessary - taking time off to badmouth the people that will make the decisions. Smart.

The shipyard has been on the list before, and has been saved before. I think it's been saved for the last time, though. Snowe has played both sides of the political fence for so long that she likely doesn't have many political chits left to cash. And Collins is something of a nonentity in Washington. Her statement today was just awful, as well.

The political irrelevance of Maine's senators is in large part due to their 'moderation.' When you stand for nothing but your own popularity, it's hard to be seen as an effective leader.

Posted by slublog at May 13, 2005 03:00 PM

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Comments

Well, now, since disgruntled Maine GOPers have hope that they won't to face an uphill battle just trying to erode Snowe's support, you can entertain the possibility of actually supporting a worthwhile primary opponent for her who might actually retain her seat for the GOP, instead of cutting your losses and campaigning for her Dem opponent just to get rid of her. So who's on the short list?

Posted by: MainiacJoe at May 13, 2005 11:27 AM

Personally, I think Snowe doesn't want to lose an election and will quit before Maine can fire her - which is very good.

Short list: Peter Cianchette, former candidate for governor. He did quite well against Baldacci last time, and I think would be able to hold the base together while reaching out a bit.

Former Oxford county senator Richard Bennett.

Those would be my first choices for candidates.

Posted by: Slublog at May 13, 2005 11:44 AM

Heh I just thought of something. Cohen couldn't keep Loring open, and soon he's a token GOP Cabinet toadie to a Democratic president. Assuming Snowe can't keep Portsmouth open (not like she's made herself any friends in the administration lately, hmmm?) anyone care to speculate on her next job?

Posted by: MainiacJoe at May 13, 2005 04:30 PM

How about Tom Allen's future? He took a walk away from an Armed Services seat to sit on
Commerce when the base closure commission was heating up. I notice he's a bit quiet . . . He's done nothing for Maine.

Posted by: Dan at May 13, 2005 06:09 PM

I think Allen will be safe. He's kind of a nonentity - pure partisan, which makes him loved in Portland.

Posted by: Slublog at May 13, 2005 06:11 PM

Let's be serious. I was at the Coast Guard station in Portsmouth 20 years ago for duty. The Shipyard was a hole then and it must be worse now. Also, BNAS has been irrelevent for years. There will be much political posturing but they know in reality that it is the right thing to do. In addition, remember Snowe touted how she would save Loring when she ran against Andrews knowing full well it would probably close. Andrews told the truth and lost for it. Snowe knows how politics can promote and it is hypocritical for her to point to politics now.

Posted by: Nordique at May 13, 2005 06:15 PM

The Cold War is over. There's no reason for these bases to exist. People will lose their jobs, but tough shit. They should.

And yeah, Tom Allen's seat is safe. I live in Portland; trust me on this.

Posted by: Andrew at May 13, 2005 11:14 PM

Not only that, but Portsmouth has been building ships that the Navy just doesn't need. I don't know why they didn't expand their business into commercial building - cruise ships, cargo vessels, etc.

Posted by: Slublog at May 13, 2005 11:20 PM

1) These are DoD decisions. They are not political (outside of the DoD that is).
2) The DoD is not a pork-barrel welfare program to give everyone jobs. It exists to procure the means of destruction for our enemies. Sorry Limestone and Portsmouth, but either you are the pointy part of the spear or not.

Will this help or hurt Snowe? Who knows, it depends on who runs. Both Collins and Snowe are better than the dems they ran against. Pingree anyone?

Posted by: chrishillman at May 14, 2005 01:46 PM